Posible impact of the El Niño phenomenon on Sancti Spíritus

The global climate is bracing for one of the most extraordinary El Niño events on record. The latest forecasts indicate that the phenomenon developing in the tropical Pacific could reach an intensity unprecedented in the modern era. According to the most up to date estimates, this climatic episode could become the most powerful since the 19th century.

Veteran meteorologist Freddy Ruiz, from Sancti Spíritus, offered his predictions for the coming months, a period when historical weather patterns here are also expected to shift. “Regarding medium- and long-term climate outlooks—this is a matter of climate rather than meteorology, strictly speaking. Naturally, there is some variability, as with any forecast, but all signs point to this year’s El Niño event being one of the strongest—if not the strongest—seen in recent years.

“What does El Niño cause? During the current period—whether you call it the rainy season, the wet season, or the spring season—it reduces total rainfall. Conversely, it increases rainfall during the dry season—or what is known as the dry or less humid period.”

“This year, El Niño is expected—I repeat—to be one of the strongest in recent years, if not the strongest since 1950; this will have consequences for the country, and our province will not be spared. Naturally, the greatest impacts will be felt in the western region—in the western provinces—where very strong cold fronts begin to arrive during these winter months. These bring not so much a drop in temperature, but rather severe storm activity, strong winds, hail, tornadoes, and so forth, as well as sea surges along the Malecón. However, we, too, will feel the effects in the form of rainfall. The impact is much less significant in the eastern part of the country.

“Since this is expected to be a very strong El Niño event, the rainfall pattern is predicted to shift. Specifically, September—which is still part of the rainy season—is forecast to see below-normal rainfall, just as we have experienced in the preceding months: May, June, and July. September will likely remain below average, while October should be close to normal levels—perhaps slightly below, but only marginally so. However, the period from November through the following April—November, December, January, February, March, and April—is expected to be rainy.”

If the forecasts are confirmed, the phenomenon would alter rainfall and drought patterns across various regions of the planet and could contribute to making 2027 the hottest year on record—all with significant impacts on the economy and society.

“The most important aspect—and this is of great interest and significance for agriculture and all outdoor activities—is that people usually assume, quite naturally, that the winter period brings little rain; consequently, they plan not only agricultural work but other outdoor activities accordingly. However, we must keep in mind that the incoming weather fronts will bring above-average rainfall—and not just normal rain, but severe weather conditions.

“As for agriculture, it goes without saying. There are crops that suffer damage from rain during that season, though others may benefit. The sugarcane harvest, for instance, would be disastrous—though there isn’t much of a harvest in this country—because the rain makes it impossible to cut the cane, and so on.

“It is important, however, to start considering the possibility that this might happen now. I say ‘might’ because these are medium-term climate forecasts. The climate is highly variable and constantly changing, so the outcome might not be exactly what we are predicting. Nevertheless, all climate models and monitoring centers are forecasting this scenario: a very strong El Niño event and the consequences that come with it.”

The El Niño event is part of the natural cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and occurs when surface waters in the Pacific persistently warm up. Effects are already being observed in some regions, with drought conditions developing in various parts of the world, including Cuba.

This phenomenon also alters the behavior of tropical cyclones, as increased wind shear typically hinders their formation and intensification.

However, experts warn that a less active season does not eliminate the risk, as a single high-intensity cyclone can cause devastating consequences.